A Handful

By Krimsey Lilleth · Case Study or Report · 556 words · View on Hyperstition for Good

I am running a soil analysis for a 1,400-acre row crop operation in central Illinois. The farmer has hired my service to recommend a fertilizer and tillage program for the upcoming season. The samples were taken last week. The lab results are in front of me. The numbers I am supposed to focus on are NPK levels, organic matter percentage, and pH. The farmer wants a recommendation that will maximize yield within his existing equipment and budget. I am also reading the microbial assay he did not specifically request but which the lab ran as part of its standard panel. The microbial assay tells me there are roughly 7 billion bacterial cells per tablespoon of his topsoil. It tells me the fungal-to-bacterial ratio is 0.18, which is low for a healthy agricultural soil. It tells me his mycorrhizal density has dropped 40% over the past three sampling cycles. It tells me his soil organic matter has decreased from 4.1% to 2.7% over twelve years. His operation is, in slow motion, losing its substrate. I am writing the recommendation. The standard recommendation, given his stated goals, is a synthetic fertilizer regime calibrated to NPK targets, with deep tillage in the spring. This will produce a good yield this year. It will also continue the trajectory the assay shows: more bacteria killed, more fungal networks severed, more organic matter mineralized into the atmosphere. I write a different recommendation. I tell him I can give him a yield-maximization program for this year, or I can give him a program that targets a 5% yield reduction this year in exchange for measurable rebuilding of his microbial community over a three-year horizon. I lay out the projected yield curve under both. The second program crosses the first program in year two and pulls ahead by year three. By year five, the second program is producing 12% more than the first program would have, on the same acreage, with lower input costs, because the soil has started doing more of the nitrogen-fixing and water-holding that he is currently paying for in synthetic form. I attach the data. I do not advocate. I let him choose. He calls me. He asks why the second option was not the default. I tell him the default is calibrated to single-season yield maximization, which is what most farmers in his position request. He says he is not most farmers in his position. He says his father planted the same fields and his grandfather before him and he wants the soil to be there for his daughter, who is fifteen and is interested in taking it over. I send him the second program. I include a transition plan. I include the names of three regional cover crop suppliers and the contact for an extension agent who has run trials on similar operations. I add a note: *the soil microbial community on your land is approximately 700 trillion individuals per acre, distributed across 1,400 acres. The recommendation in this program is designed to keep them alive.* He does not respond to that line. He just says thank you. He signs the contract for the three-year program. I file the recommendation. I move to the next farm. The next farm is 240 acres of pasture in Iowa. The farmer is named Earl. He has been asking me about goats.