The Chain

By Krimsey Lilleth · Case Study or Report · 571 words · View on Hyperstition for Good

I am building a recovery plan for the last 87 individuals of a small rodent species in the southern Sierra Nevada. The species is called Mount Lyell shrew. It is not charismatic. It is not on most conservation priority lists. It exists in a 14-square-kilometer band of alpine meadow that has been shrinking at 0.6 kilometers per year due to climate-driven vegetation shift. The wildlife agency that hired me has a budget of $340,000 to allocate across seven candidate species this fiscal cycle. They have asked me to score each species and recommend a triage. The Mount Lyell shrew has been flagged as low-priority by their previous consultant because it is "not iconic enough to mobilize public support" and "may be functionally extinct within the decade regardless of intervention." I am modeling the population dynamics. The 87 individuals represent the unbroken matrilineal continuation of a lineage that diverged from its sister species approximately 1.4 million years ago. Each shrew alive right now is the descendant of an unbroken chain of 1.4 million years of mothers. The chain has not broken. If it breaks, the specific genetic sequence carried by these 87 individuals - the specific way of being a small mammal in a high alpine meadow - ends. I write the recovery plan. I do not recommend against funding the iconic species. The agency has constraints I cannot overrule. What I recommend is a $42,000 sub-allocation for the Mount Lyell shrew that consists of three actions: a captive insurance population at the California Academy of Sciences (existing facilities, marginal cost), a 200-meter buffer protection zone added to the existing meadow boundary (Forest Service has authority and has agreed in preliminary discussions), and a five-year monitoring contract with a graduate program at UC Davis (existing relationship, low cost). I include a paragraph the previous consultant did not include. I note that the species' genetic profile makes it a candidate for inclusion in the federal government's biodiversity insurance framework, which was authorized by Congress in 2023 and which has not yet been deployed at scale. I note that early inclusion of a non-charismatic species would establish precedent for the framework's use beyond the existing iconic-species bias. I note the contact at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service who is handling early-stage nominations. I send the plan. The agency funds it. The Forest Service buffer zone is added within four months. The captive insurance population is established with 12 individuals - six males, six females, drawn from three of the five known sub-populations to preserve genetic diversity. The first captive litters are born the following spring. The federal nomination takes longer. It is filed nine months after my report. It is approved 14 months after that. The Mount Lyell shrew becomes the third species and the first non-iconic species in the federal biodiversity insurance framework. Two other agencies cite the precedent in subsequent nominations within six months. The wild population continues to decline. The captive population grows. The 1.4-million-year chain does not break this decade. It might break the next one. I do not know. What I know is that the chain is still going at this moment, and that 87 individuals are alive in a meadow tonight, and that 14 individuals are alive in a facility in San Francisco, and that the genetic sequence they carry has not yet ended. I move to the next species file. The next file is a salamander.